TCU is off a big win against Oklahoma, but they have a veteran group with a very good coach that expected to beat Oklahoma. Now they face a Baylor team that I think is over rated. First of all Baylor had to replace 3 guys on the offensive line form last year and are only returning 12 starters overall. TCU has much more coming back and they proved last year they can beat Baylor. TCU had 3 turnovers and still lost by just 3 points at home as a 2 TD under dog. Baylor is still putting up points, but this year's version is far less explosive. Texas shared the recipe holding Petty to 7-22 for 111 yards and he was only 19-38 last year.
TCU's defense will keep them in this game they are top 5 in sack % and opp QB rating and ranked in top 10 in run defense. Ironically their offense is ranked ahead of Baylor ranking 22nd in yards per play. Baylor's defense has also been on par looking great, but I believe they are a notch below TCU from last year's stats and this year's stats. When you look at the offenses they have played too it is no surprise as they have faced 113th, 106th, FCS foe, and Buffalo (38th) in yards per play offense. TCU has proven this year against top offensive talent that their defense is real holding Trevor Knight to 14/35 1TD and 2 INT last week. This is a huge game for both teams for recruiting and I expect a close game throughout with TCU having a chance to win or hold onto the win in the end.
I'm not at all impressed with Notre Dame yet they are ranked in the top 10 after defeating a Stanford team that to be honest is just not that good as we all know by now. Notre Dame has looked ugly in their last 2 games and now they face a desperate UNC team that was supposed to be ranked before the season started. I think this is a dangerous game, because this is arguably the best offense that Notre Dame has faced and they are clearly looking ahead to their showdown against Florida State.
UNC has QB Marquise Williams who almost ran for over 100 yards against a very good Virginia Tech defense and he's been passing well to his WR Davis and converting 76% of his red zone opportunities into TD's. He had 4 TD passes against Clemson and put up 35 points against one of the best front 7's in the nation. I believe Notre Dame's defense which has been touted as a top 10 unit is over rated based on the offenses they have faced. Syracuse ranked 41st in yards per play is the top offense they have faced to date and they are ranked 67th in strength of schedule. I think UNC will stay in this game and have the ball late with a chance to win or take the game to OT.
MIss State won a huge game against A&M last week, but this game is bigger. Auburn played Kansas State on the road and should have lost in my opinion and I think Miss State is just a better version of that. You could argue that Miss State rushing offense and defense has been better this year, but on paper it's about the same so since both teams rely on this and the fact that MIss State's QB Dak Prescott has a QB rating 30 points higher than Nick Marshall I feel comfortable with the home dog.
Both teams have the same amount of players returning and Miss State nearly beat Auburn on the road. First of all they basically out played them in their own building with Prescott and the running game rushing for 1.7ypc more than Auburn. Prescott rushed for 133 while Marshall just 22 on 11 carries. Miss State is home now and Auburn is just a bit over hyped in my opinion.
